Friday, May 9, 2008

Two games into Celtics/Cavs...

... and we've learned NOTHING about these two teams aside from the fact that no one on the Celtics can guard Ilgauskas - and that it doesn't matter because the Cavs will forget about him halfway through the game anyways.

In my last entry, I complained that people made idiotic assumptions about the Celtics based on the last series with Atlanta. Well, now the idiocy will continue because people will make one of two silly assumptions:

A. The Cavs are finished.
B. The Celtics will lose the next two games.

Neither one is a rational assumption.
To assume that Cavs are dead just because the C's "shut down" Lebron is moronic, especially in light of the last series with Atlanta. The Hawks weren't finished when they went down 2-0 and Cleveland is a much better team. Also, since "shutting down" Lebron apparently means he doesn't get a triple double with 30 plus points, that's not much of a "shut down". Containing is a more accurate description. And let's be fair, the Celtics can not defend those mid range jumpers that Ilgauskas can hit in his sleep. The Cavs haven't been going to him that frequently (which, as Charles Barkley pointed out, is insane) but I can see the big man going off on the C's in a tight game. I expect the Cavs to win at least one of the games in Cleveland. They'll have the home court advantage, a partisan crowd (and some "home cooking" from the officials) and you can only "contain" Lebron for so long.

I also think it's dumb to expect the C's to lose the next two game. As I said last time, the C's will not have an identical experience in this round to the one they had at Atlanta. If they lose the next two - and I don't think they will - there's no guarantee that they win game five. Likewise, I don't think the Cavs will be able to exploit the Celtics in the identical way the Hawks did.

It's cute to use past performances to determine future results. But this is sports and things do indeed change.

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